I spent my evenings this week finishing up an Orange R2-D2 costume. We are really excited for halloween. The last thing we need, to be ready is to find out the gender of the baby! I get to be a flower, and the color of the flower is the gender of the baby. So place your guesses. Am I going to be a pink, blue or yellow (the baby was shy) flower?
As a side note, I've been trying to convince myself either way. Each baby is an independent event, so boy or girl is just as likely. I've heard a lot of people tell me that we will only make boys, and then others tell me the probability of getting all boys is 1/8 or 12.5%* and that the probability of having two boys and one girl is 3/8 or 37.5%*, so the probability is higher to have a girl. But I respond to them that as it's an independent event it's just as likely at this point to get either a girl or a boy.
Friendly Hero is convinced that it's another boy baby so we can be like Alma who has three sons. And then we can have a gir-la baby. A lot of strangers say it's time for me to have a girl. So place your guess! I'll let you know after our first Halloween party and I'll post pictures of our costumes!
*okay, I tell them the probability when they tell me that mathematically it's higher probability to have the girl. And then they get a lesson in probability. (They thought they were helping me out by thinking about it mathematically, and their thoughts were slightly flawed. Some were outright wrong and then I correct them.)
7 comments:
GIRL!!!
Hope your feeling well. <3
CONGRATS! I didn't realize you were expecting! I'm so happy for you! I hope you have a healthy baby whatever gender it is. You are a fantastic mom, and it shows when you have your little guy saying he wants a baby brother so you can have 3 sons like Alma! I'm SO happy for you, and I hope you feel less tired some day. :)
But having a baby is not like flipping a coin. If you've had two bos already, you're actually more likely to have a boy.
@Alyosha: I would agree with you--to an extent. Having babies is not exactly 50/50 ratio because each Dad has a slightly different make up of male-to-female sperm count. It is always close to 50/50, and each baby is an independent event from it's siblings.
So excited for you!
We are so excited, of course ultra sounds can be wrong. We had several with Samantha all saying she was a boy. ;)
If I understand you correctly according to Friendly Hero:
Let $X$ be the event "Mummy has a baby girl" in the Hughes parition with the $\sigma$-algebra Boy or girl,
it is then trivially admitted that:
\begin equation
(X,\mathcal{Hughes},\mathbb{Gender}) \leadsto \mathcal{G}(3)
\end equation
I clearly see no point in trying to go into a continuous probability distribution. However, do you think it is possible for you to extract more data so we can better approximate the parameters of such law? :P Arguably it's not a compliment for friendly or peaceful hero to model through geometric law.
As I write I realize the model is missing a key element of friendly hero's speech. That is "Like Alma", which means we must include a Baysian formula in there on the assumtions that we know Alma's gendre probability distribution. That's when the math starts getting nasty...
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